TVNweather.com | Tornado Chasers

How do you increase lead time before a tornado strikes?


#1

What is holding the weather community from predicting tornadoes better than today? And why haven’t they solved how to predict when a tornado will hit a community at an exact time?


#2

I need to know why. Because I think I know how to predict these things. But I need help from other bloggers. Anyone?


#3

I’m 13, and I am researching something. But I need you guy’s expertise to help. And the creators are a perfect example. But anyone is fine? Seth? Reed? Anyone going to respond?


#4

Hi Logan,

There have been some advancements in predicting when and where severe weather will occur. Unfortunately, many of the factors that contribute to tornado development are hard to predict, and forecasts change frequently, as forecast models change. There are certain “ingredients” that must be in place for tornadoes to develop. One of those ingredients is instability. Instability refers to warm and humid air in the lower atmosphere, with cooler air higher in the atmosphere. This contributes for the upward rising of warm air into the cooler air aloft, which can form thunderstorms. Many times instability is prime along cold or warm fronts, where 2 air masses are converging. The other main ingredient is wind shear, which refers to different wind directions and speeds at different levels of the atmosphere. Forecasters rely heavily on forecast models. There are many different models that forecasters use, and some times these forecast models differentiate if and where these ingredients will be in place. Forecasters look for trends and where models “agree” to make their forecasts. Today, there are many weather spotters and storm chasers that work with local media and NWS offices to relay information from under storms to advance warning times. Often before a tornado forms, a wall cloud forms under the base of the storm. These wall clouds are often visible in the Southern most part of a super cell thunderstorm, and gives spotters and chasers a good idea of when and where a tornado will form. This information is then relayed to the NWS and local media networks, and advanced warnings can be issued, often with confirmation or assistance from radar indicated rotation. I hope his helps you out and addresses your question. Let me know if you want any more information.

Dustin


#5

Dustin, what is the max lead time before a tornado strikes?


#6

Hey @loganlove820. First off I would like to say that initially when I saw your post, I thought it was a pretty good question.
And I’m not trying to nitpick, but I would advise you to stop putting up post after post just to get more attention. Often it take a few days or even weeks for your post to get a lot of attention.
Also other bloggers are not required to answer your post.
And to answer your question, we don’t know for sure when and where a tornado will strike, but we just use our knowledge from past storms and patterns to try and predict them.

Good luck with your research!


#7

What is the highest a supercell cloud will reach?


#8

Why don’t you research it? You can always use Google or related websites!
But from what I found, (Correct me if I’m wrong), it looks like supercell storms go up to approximately 50 to 60 thousand feet. (I just clicked on the first link Google gave me, so I’m not sure how accurate that was.)
So what is your idea, or suggested way of predicting storms?


#9

I actually have two. I need to actually find numbers, but I look at
predicting from a new angle. Also, do you think you could chat on private
email?


#10

@loganlove820 I’m just an average guy, and you have the same access to weather based websites as I do. And to be dead honest with you, we can discuss the same info right here on TVNcommunity as we could on live chat or email. I (And others) would be happy to discuss it right here on this forum! :smiley:


#12

“We know tornadoes come from supercell thunderstorms. But we do not know why some storms create tornadoes & why others don’t.” That is an answer from a meteorologist I know.