TVNweather.com | Tornado Chasers

Storm possibilities for the week of 5/3/15


#1

I have noticed that the Weather Channel says that there may be storms in mid Oklahoma this next week (I’m not sure about other locations). I’m not sure how the patterns are going to line up for severe storms this next week but if anybody else has more info comment below!


#2

Amarillo: “SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY…ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL…MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.”.

Dodge City: “ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS DURING
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED UP FROM THE GULF AND PWAT`S SURPASS AN INCH…”

Wichita: " ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS DURING
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED UP FROM THE GULF AND PWAT`S SURPASS AN INCH."

Topeka: :Models show the associated cold front extending into north
central Kansas and southeast Nebraska, however the last few models
runs have shown this front becoming fairly stationary over northern
Kansas Monday into Monday night, limiting the southeastern extent of
precipitation chances across the CWA. As a result, have continued to
diminish PoPs across far east central Kansas through that period
with likely PoPs along the KS/NE border with the stationary
boundary. There continues to be the potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop along this stationary boundary
Monday afternoon into Monday evening as storms should be
surface-based due to little to no inhibition present. The NAM
continues to be the most aggressive with the amount of available
moisture, thus increasing the parameters for severe thunderstorms.
However, CAPE values could reach upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg with
decent low-level lapse rates. However, 0-6km bulk shear continues to
look fairly weak with most models showing upwards of only about
30kts. The main concern with any strong to severe storms will likely
be some large hail and potentially some locally heavy rain as
thunderstorms may train across north central Kansas into the evening
and overnight hours with the low-level jet looking to be parallel to
the boundary…"

Omaha: : "THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST SPOTS TODAY WITH A FEW
HIGHS AROUND 90 POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CREATE CAPE VALUES FROM 1500
TO 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT CAP TO BREAK NEAR THE FRONT
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE CAP WEAKENING
FARTHER SOUTH…BUT WITH A LACK OF FOCUS AT THAT TIME WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE…WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. (vague on long term)

La Crosse WI for today: THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SHOW WILL COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE 03.00Z MODELS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TAKING
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH…CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN…ALMOST
DUE EAST WITH A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT AND THE PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES
EAST…IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE
03.00Z NAM INDICATE A PRETTY DEEP MIXED LAYER…UP TO ABOUT 850
MB…AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT COULD BRING DOWN SOME DRIER AIR AND
KEEP THE DEW POINTS CAPPED IN THE MID 50S. WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOUT 2 TO 3C OVER SATURDAY…EXPECT THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MIDDLE 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD YIELD ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK CAP
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT
FALLS…IT WILL TAKE THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE FRONT TO
BREAK THE CAP. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MODERATE IN STRENGTH IN THE 1000-850 MB AND THEN WEAK FROM 850 MB
UP THROUGH 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND
ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING
AMONG THE HI-RES MESO MODELS…THE 03.00Z NAM12 AND 03.00Z NESTED
NAM THAT THE FRONT SHOULD START TO APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CONVECTION FIRST IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN THE 21Z-24Z WINDOW AND THEN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN STRONG INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THE CAPE QUICKLY DWINDLES WITH JUST GENERAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
STILL PRESENT FROM ABOUT 4 PM THROUGH 10 PM WITH LARGE HAIL
LOOKING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
AID IN THE HAIL PRODUCTION. NOT EXPECTING THE HAIL TO BE OVERLY
LARGE AS A GENERAL LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THE UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUBDUED. WHAT SHEAR THERE IS WILL BE IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS…WHICH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUST FRONTS CLOSE TO THE STORMS.

La Crosse WI : THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SHOW WILL COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE 03.00Z MODELS HAVE REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TAKING
THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH…CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN…ALMOST
DUE EAST WITH A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT AND THE PV ADVECTION IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES
EAST…IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE
03.00Z NAM INDICATE A PRETTY DEEP MIXED LAYER…UP TO ABOUT 850
MB…AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT COULD BRING DOWN SOME DRIER AIR AND
KEEP THE DEW POINTS CAPPED IN THE MID 50S. WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOUT 2 TO 3C OVER SATURDAY…EXPECT THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MIDDLE 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS SHOULD YIELD ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK CAP
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT
FALLS…IT WILL TAKE THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE FRONT TO
BREAK THE CAP. THE FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
MODERATE IN STRENGTH IN THE 1000-850 MB AND THEN WEAK FROM 850 MB
UP THROUGH 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND
ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING
AMONG THE HI-RES MESO MODELS…THE 03.00Z NAM12 AND 03.00Z NESTED
NAM THAT THE FRONT SHOULD START TO APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE CONVECTION FIRST IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN THE 21Z-24Z WINDOW AND THEN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN STRONG INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THE CAPE QUICKLY DWINDLES WITH JUST GENERAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
STILL PRESENT FROM ABOUT 4 PM THROUGH 10 PM WITH LARGE HAIL
LOOKING TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
AID IN THE HAIL PRODUCTION. NOT EXPECTING THE HAIL TO BE OVERLY
LARGE AS A GENERAL LACK OF SHEAR WILL KEEP THE UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUBDUED. WHAT SHEAR THERE IS WILL BE IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS…WHICH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE GUST FRONTS CLOSE TO THE STORMS.

All in all not much to be expected based on all of the forecast discussions, but things can change and surprise us. It has been notable as how little tornadic activity has occurred this year - look at the mid-South - NADA…and for the Blue Springs Missouri area, only a clap or two of thunder, not even what I would call a weak thunderstorm. Dog


#3

And here is some more info for the middle of this week towards Mothers Day weekend.